Seminarios de Economía


Para suscribirse a la lista de seminarios o solicitar información adicional, por favor comunicarse con asistenciaeco@utdt.edu.



Próximos Seminarios




27 de mayo, 17.15h | Andrés Gago (UTDT) | MAGNA

"Blaming Your Predecessor: Government Turnover and External Financial Assistance"

Abstract

We study the political incentives shaping governments' decisions to seek assistance from a lender of last resort. We propose that re-elected incumbents are more reluctant than newly elected governments to request assistance, as this action reveals negative information about their past performance. We analyze the decisions made by 3,000 Spanish municipalities following a credit shock during the Great Recession. Regression-discontinuity estimates show that newly elected executives are significantly more likely than re-elected incumbents to publicly agree on a financing program with the national government. Analyses of press coverage, news content using ChatGPT and politicians' survey responses indicate that re-elected incumbents avoid requesting a public bailout to protect their image, despite it being financially suboptimal. This shows how electoral incentives can prevent optimal policy adoption. We also provide cross-country descriptive evidence that a change in office is associated with a larger probability of receiving financial assistance from the IMF, which suggests that the effect that we find in Spain can be found in other contexts.
28 de mayo, 12h | Rody Manuelli (Washington University in St. Louis) | SV 203

“A Simple Model of Maturity Choice”

Abstract

We study the optimal structure of the debt issued by a firm (or a country) that faces rollover risk. We abstract from many of the issues that have been discussed to explain the choice of maturity like agency, strategic considerations and private and asymmetric information. Therefore we are left only with the fundamentals of the problem. We find that firms that are in poor financial conditions (low earnings, high volatility of earnings and high leverage) choose to issue shorter debt than healthier firms. Similarly, the market environment (interest rates and duration of the rollover risk state) influence the choice of maturity. We introduce the notion of a refinancing set to gain some understanding about the choice of debt maturity.
2 de junio, 12h | Eduardo Levy Yeyati (UTDT) | SV 402

"Reserves as Insurance: International Buffers and Inward FDI in Emerging Markets"

Abstract
Emerging markets have accumulated large reserve buffers, but whether these buffers causally affect inward foreign direct investment (FDI) remains an open question. Using an unbalanced panel of emerging market economies over 2001–2020, we estimate two-way fixed-effects models of net inward FDI inflows with a rich set of lagged controls. We address the endogeneity of reserve accumulation by instrumenting lagged reserves with the two-year-lagged log of each country’s commodity import price index—a source of balance-of-payments pressure orthogonal to export-driven profitability shocks, conditional on a country-specific commodity export price index. The IV estimates imply that a 10% increase in reserves raises FDI inflows by about 18.5% (an elasticity of 1.85), more than four times the fixed-effects OLS estimate of 0.4. The effect is amplified during global stress episodes: the IV elasticity is 1.85 in the full sample but falls to 1.34 when crisis years (2008–2009, 2020) are excluded, consistent with reserves functioning as insurance that matters most when downside risks are salient.
3 de junio, 17.15h | Juan Pablo Filippini (IESE Business School) | SV 403

Paper TBA
10 de junio, 17.15h | Diego Friedheim (UTDT) | MAGNA

"Banks' Inflation Expectations and Credit Allocation: The Fisher Effect"

Abstract

This paper investigates how lenders’ inflation expectations shape credit allocation. Banks expecting higher inflation reallocate credit toward leveraged firms, which benefit from a reduction in the real burden of nominal debt. To test this hypothesis, we combine bank-level inflation forecasts for developed economies with syndicated loan data spanning 1991–2021. We show that banks expecting a one percentage point higher inflation rate over the subsequent year extend loans that are 18% larger and charge spreads that are 10% lower to highly leveraged firms than banks with lower inflation expectations. Importantly, these effects are concentrated among firms with high long-term leverage, rather than short-term leverage, whose real value is less affected by inflation. Because the additional bank credit is cheaper, firms change their capital structure, substituting away from bond financing and into floating-rate credit lines. As a result, these firms lower their exposure to inflation risk, but increase their exposure to refinancing risk. Our findings suggest that lenders’ inflation expectations play an important role in credit allocation and have implications for financial stability by affecting firm leverage and debt maturity.

11 de junio, 12h | Alejandro Francetich (University of Washington) | A 402

Paper TBA
17 de junio, 17.15h | Alejandro Francetich (University of Washington) | MAGNA

Paper TBA
18  de junio, 12h | Louis-Pierre Lepage (Stockholm University) | A 402

Paper TBA
24 de junio, 17.15h | Santiago Hermo (Monash University) | MAGNA

Paper TBA
25 de junio, 12h | Marcos Lissauer (UTDT) | SV 203

Paper TBA
1 de julio, 17.15h | Francisco Poggi (University of Mannheim) | MAGNA

Paper TBA
2 de julio, 12h | Andres Fioriti (UNS - Conicet) | MAGNA

Paper TBA
7 de julio, 12h | Tomás Caravello (MIT)

Paper TBA
8 de julio, 17.15h | Eugenio Giolito (UCEMA)

Paper TBA
15 de julio, 17.15h | Fernando Alvarez (UChicago)

Paper TBA
5 de agosto, 17.15h | Michal Krawczyk (University of Warsaw)

Paper TBA
12 de agosto, 17.15h | Alejandro Graziano (U of Nottingham)

Paper TBA
19 de agosto, 17.15h | Sebastián Galiani (U of Maryland)

Paper TBA
2 de septiembre, 17.15h | María Inés Berniell (UNLP)

Paper TBA
9 de septiembre, 17.15h | Julio Elias (UCEMA)

Paper TBA
16 de septiembre, 17.15h | Martin Tobal (Banco de Mexico)

Paper TBA
30 de septiembre, 17.15h | Camila Navajas (UTDT)

Paper TBA
14 de octubre, 17.15h | Danilo Trupkin (UdeSA)

Paper TBA
4 de noviembre, 17.15h | Fernando Perez Cervantes (ITAM)

Paper TBA
25 de noviembre, 17.15h | Nicholas Trachter (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Paper TBA


Seminarios pasados


  • 4/3/2026 | Nir Jaimovich (University of California) | "The Impact of Economic Shifts: From Micro-Elasticities to Distributional Welfare Effects".

  • 5/3/2026 | Veronica Rappoport-Redondo (LSE) | "The Perfect Match: Assortative Matching in Mergers and Acquisitions".

  • 11/3/2026 | Fernando Arce (BID) | "Sovereign Risk with Endogenous Debt Limits".

  • 18/3/2026 | Sergio Petralia (Utrecht University) | "Actionable Disclosure in Patents: How Open Code Reduces Barriers to Knowledge Diffusion".

  • 19/3/2026 | Bruno Pellegrino (CBS) | "Dynamic investment and product market rivalry: The Network Q Model".

  • 25/3/2026 | Leticia Juarez (BID) | "The Financial Channel of Tax Amnesty Policies".

  • 6/4/2026 | Tamon Asonuma (IMF) | "Heterogeneous Sovereign Debt Crisis Costs".

  • 8/4/2026 | Lautaro Chittaro (Stanford) | "Selection in Crisis Lending: Evidence from Chile's Government-Guaranteed Loans"

  • 15/4/2026 | Harald Uhlig (UChicago) | "Neoclassical Growth Transition Dynamics with One-Sided Commitment"

  • 22/4/2026 | Manuel Macera (UTDT) | ""Demographics, Social Discounting, and Climate Policy".

  • 28/4/2026 | Agustín Gutiérrez (U of Wisconsin - Madison) | "Multinational Production and Trade Policy"

  • 29/4/2026 | Hugo Hopenhayn (UCLA) | "Firm Demographics and Sectoral Reallocation"

  • 6/5/2026 | María Lombardi (UTDT) | "Does Generative AI Narrow Education-Based Productivity Gaps? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment"

  • 13/5/2026 | Ami Ichikawa (UTDT) | "Unpacking the Spillover Effect: Evidence from a Voting Campaign in Pakistan"

  • 18/5/2026 | Federico Grinberg (IMF) | ""Stablecoin inflows and spillovers to FX markets"

  • 20/5/2026 | Verónica Frisancho (CAF) | "Ability Grouping and Student Performance: Experimental Evidence from Middle Schools in Mexico"