El objetivo de este documento de divulgación es hacer un aporte para comprender de manera balanceada la crisis con los hold-outs y formular una política sobre deuda soberana conveniente para Argentina. Para ello, primero se analizan los aspectos económicos de los créditos riesgosos y los determinantes del riesgo país, se caracterizan los tipos de inversores en estos mercados y se muestra la evolución de la calidad crediticia de gobiernos latinoamericanos en los últimos 30 años. Luego se pasa revista a los aspectos jurídicos de la reestructuración de deudas soberanas bajo ley inglesa y estadounidense y a cómo han evolucionado los juicios para arbitrar diferendos entre deudores y acreedores desde 1976. Se comparan aspectos salientes de nuestra reestructuración de 2005 con todas las otras reestructuraciones de deuda de países de ingresos medios ocurridas entre 1998 y 2013. Por último, se sintetizan investigaciones sobre el subconjunto de reestructuraciones que han enfrentado juicios de acreedores disidentes (o sea hold-outs, ya sean buitres o no buitres que también litigaron) y se hace una cronología de nuestros juicios. Se concluye con los lineamientos generales de una propuesta que cumpla el objetivo planteado.
LECTURA EXPRESS: Esta presentación sintetiza la comparación de nuestra reestructuración de 2005 con todos los canjes posteriores al Plan Brady y la parte propositiva del documento.
Joint with Javier García-Cicco (Central Bank of Chile and Universidad Católica Argentina)
ABSTRACT
We propose a novel approach to grade presidential economic performance
using stock returns. In efficient markets, asset prices are unique in that they
impound the long term effects of changes in the environment, including government
policy. To purge national returns of
state-of-the-world conditions that do not result from local events, we
introduce a global twin portfolio and a regional return. The twin portfolio for a country reports the
return of a combination of world stocks that each month has the same industrial
composition as that one country’s stock index.
These benchmark external conditions are most volatile: they vary between
a 295% appreciation (or tailwind under some interpretations) and a 30% reduction (or headwind) in asset prices over extreme four-year presidencies in
our sample. We interpret the gap of
national performance over these counterfactual returns as a proxy for the
quality of domestic policies during a given presidency, as seen from the
standpoint of equity investors. We apply
this approach to seven Latin American countries from 1980 until 2011. From this perspective, Colombia, Peru and
Chile stand out as the countries that have implemented the best long run
policies over the sample. In addition, we
provide a grading of relative presidential performance. Aplicación:COPA AMÉRICA BURSÁTIL (LATIN AMERICAN STOCK MARKET CUP)
It is widely believed that insider trading is rampant in Latin America. If insider trading is widespread, then equity prices should incorporate the information in a public corporate announcement prior to its release and not react thereafter. We study the market’s anticipation to, and impact of, major announcements of leading firms from Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and the US. In line with the popular view, we find a sizable degree of anticipation in the region. In spite of this anticipation, corporate announcements tend to surprise the market in Latin America, contrary to the findings of the received literature. Moreover, we find that the Latin American pattern of anticipation and impact is not so different from that prevailing in the US.
